Market Sentiment Positive & Fundamentals Optimistic, Iron Ore Prices Rise Significantly [SMM Brief Review]

Published: Dec 26, 2025 17:51

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Today, iron ore futures held up well. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 796.5, up 2.58% from the previous trading day, marking the largest increase in Q4. Traders' willingness to sell was moderate; steel mills' purchase willingness was average, with some mills purchasing as needed. The market transaction atmosphere was sluggish. In Shandong, the transaction price for PB fines was 795-803 yuan/mt, up 5-10 yuan/mt from last Friday; in Hebei, the transaction price for PB fines was 812-820 yuan/mt, up 5-10 yuan/mt from last Friday.

According to SMM shipping data, port arrivals continued to increase by 2.2% this week. Iron ore supply pressure is still on an expanding trend. However, news emerged today that a Brazilian pellet plant is expected to reduce output. Additionally, over the weekend, the Ministry of Finance meeting indicated that national subsidies will continue in 2026, boosting market sentiment. Furthermore, increased market expectations for a rebound in hot metal production in January and pre-holiday stockpiling collectively drove a significant rise in iron ore prices.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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